04 - Visions of Germany
25.11.2008 (Siem Reap)
Some days ago a report of the American Secret Service has been published and by now it seems to become somewhat official: after 500 years, the political end economical domination of the world by western nations will have come to and end very soon. In the nearest future we will only remain „first among first“, sharing the power with China and Indian and perhaps others as well. And it is quite likely that our future economic position will further shift to be somewhere between our position now and the position of other countries in the world. Since we are still at a high position, this means, we will most likely decline.
For many people in Germany, the change will appear to be quite dramatic in the next future. Many will have to learn, that the world is not very stable, that the acquisition of wealth and professional qualifications may not lead to the intended results: it does not make much sense to accumulate money over years if you don't know, what the money will be worth by the time you are getting old and need it. It does not make much sense to invest most of your effort and time for acquiring diplomas, if the chances to find good position through them are getting bad.
Many changes will come and it seems very difficult to foresee them. But two possible developments seem to be rather plausible, one positive, one negative.
The lack of professional opportunities will lead to much disappointment and disorientation in the near future. In the past, work and the position at work have become a dominant factor for the definition of our life. We spent most time with questions concerning our job and we like to define us according to the position we have at work, especially of course if we hold a high position. I am the „successful businessman“ or „banker“ or „professor“ or whatever.
Due to the lack of professional opportunities, this kind of definition will become more an more use- and senseless. If you don't have a job of if you only have a job a the social lower end, you will not try to build your self concept around this situation. People will fall into a „black hole“ by trying to stick to the old way of defining their life, trying to maintain their self picture of a successful professional and trying to cling to their material belongings - but increasingly realizing, that this method provides no satisfying value for their life. A big complaint will start, but it will come to an end after a few years. Then, people will learn to replace old concepts by never ones, they will start focusing on their immediate life, on their family and on civil activities like neighborhood help or engagement for local projects. I believe in the German civil society and I believe it is strong, smart and creative enough, to overcome the current crisis and to find alternatives, that may in some cases even turn out to feel much better, than the current situation.
But we are not only smart, we are also very energetic and that worries me sometimes. If you are full of energy and don't really know what is best to do, you might just do the wrong thing with plenty of enthusiasm. There is another development that could easily occur, not on the level of civil society but on the level of public political life. More and more people, who will become unemployed will perceive their position at the lower end of society. The political temptation is already great, to try to gain their votes for political promises. The word „Socialism“ can be heard and felt in the political discussion in Germany again, totally ignoring the fact, that we certainly had enough socialism between 1933 and 45. The one is politically left and the other right? That is just a matter of perspective. Both are political movements, that are anti conservative, weakening the established middle class, and that intent to integrate unsatisfied masses and provide opportunities for people, who hardly had any before. They may not be wrong by nature, but their widespread problems with power abuse at the top and lack of self initiative at the bottom do not seem to provide much help for the problems of our near future.
Speaking for myself: As much as I believe in the German civil society, as much I distrust masses and their political venturers. If the first scenario would become likely, I would be most happy, to help establishing civil activities and perspectives. For the second scenario I can only hope that it will remain a political phantom.
Some days ago a report of the American Secret Service has been published and by now it seems to become somewhat official: after 500 years, the political end economical domination of the world by western nations will have come to and end very soon. In the nearest future we will only remain „first among first“, sharing the power with China and Indian and perhaps others as well. And it is quite likely that our future economic position will further shift to be somewhere between our position now and the position of other countries in the world. Since we are still at a high position, this means, we will most likely decline.
For many people in Germany, the change will appear to be quite dramatic in the next future. Many will have to learn, that the world is not very stable, that the acquisition of wealth and professional qualifications may not lead to the intended results: it does not make much sense to accumulate money over years if you don't know, what the money will be worth by the time you are getting old and need it. It does not make much sense to invest most of your effort and time for acquiring diplomas, if the chances to find good position through them are getting bad.
Many changes will come and it seems very difficult to foresee them. But two possible developments seem to be rather plausible, one positive, one negative.
The lack of professional opportunities will lead to much disappointment and disorientation in the near future. In the past, work and the position at work have become a dominant factor for the definition of our life. We spent most time with questions concerning our job and we like to define us according to the position we have at work, especially of course if we hold a high position. I am the „successful businessman“ or „banker“ or „professor“ or whatever.
Due to the lack of professional opportunities, this kind of definition will become more an more use- and senseless. If you don't have a job of if you only have a job a the social lower end, you will not try to build your self concept around this situation. People will fall into a „black hole“ by trying to stick to the old way of defining their life, trying to maintain their self picture of a successful professional and trying to cling to their material belongings - but increasingly realizing, that this method provides no satisfying value for their life. A big complaint will start, but it will come to an end after a few years. Then, people will learn to replace old concepts by never ones, they will start focusing on their immediate life, on their family and on civil activities like neighborhood help or engagement for local projects. I believe in the German civil society and I believe it is strong, smart and creative enough, to overcome the current crisis and to find alternatives, that may in some cases even turn out to feel much better, than the current situation.
But we are not only smart, we are also very energetic and that worries me sometimes. If you are full of energy and don't really know what is best to do, you might just do the wrong thing with plenty of enthusiasm. There is another development that could easily occur, not on the level of civil society but on the level of public political life. More and more people, who will become unemployed will perceive their position at the lower end of society. The political temptation is already great, to try to gain their votes for political promises. The word „Socialism“ can be heard and felt in the political discussion in Germany again, totally ignoring the fact, that we certainly had enough socialism between 1933 and 45. The one is politically left and the other right? That is just a matter of perspective. Both are political movements, that are anti conservative, weakening the established middle class, and that intent to integrate unsatisfied masses and provide opportunities for people, who hardly had any before. They may not be wrong by nature, but their widespread problems with power abuse at the top and lack of self initiative at the bottom do not seem to provide much help for the problems of our near future.
Speaking for myself: As much as I believe in the German civil society, as much I distrust masses and their political venturers. If the first scenario would become likely, I would be most happy, to help establishing civil activities and perspectives. For the second scenario I can only hope that it will remain a political phantom.
posted by Nihilissimus at 9:15 AM
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